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LevelTen Energy’s Q2 2026 North American PPA Price Index Report is now available for subscribers.
Each quarter, the LevelTen Energy PPA Price Index reports the prices that wind and solar project developers have offered for power purchase agreements (PPAs) on the LevelTen Energy Marketplace, the world’s largest collection of PPA pricing offers.
This quarter’s edition includes a deep dive into European onshore wind, exploring the regulatory context, future opportunities, and PPA values that this technology provides.
Key highlights from the report:
Solar Prices Cool Amid Soft Market
Q2 saw the first declining trend in solar PPA prices in two years, with Market-Averaged solar PPA prices going down by 4.8% quarter over quarter. However, a steep quarterly drop in CAISO, which constitutes a small percentage of total offer volume, accounted for more than half of this decline. With CAISO's influence removed, Q2's Market-Averaged trend moderates to just a 1.8% drop.
Nonetheless, decreasing solar prices were observed across most markets this quarter. While some moderation in PV project CapEx may be at play, a continued softening in the market's buy-side is likely the driving factor. While large, data center-focused buyers are procuring at scale, many C&I corporates are feeling a sense of hesitancy amid ongoing Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) revisions and generally high PPA prices. Many developers are likely sharpening their prices to keep offers competitive in this buyer's market.
Wind Pipeline Standstill Persists
Wind prices on LevelTen's Market-Averaged Continental Index once again rose significantly in Q2, increasing by 5.5% quarter over quarter. On a year-over-year basis, wind PPA prices are up by 17.5%.
A constellation of tariffs, plus higher gas prices pushing up the cost of overland turbine delivery, are applying upward pressure to wind development costs. But the main story for the wind sector is undoubtedly the ongoing federal permitting bottleneck that has largely ground new-build wind development to a standstill. The Department of Defense's near-total halt in the issuance of mitigation agreements — which determine potential national security impacts for wind projects — has kept new wind projects in limbo since August of last year. While legal challenges are ongoing, the dynamic has resulted in a fast-dwindling pipeline of viable wind assets, and price premiums for fully permitted projects available for offtake.
The Tax Credit Clock Is Ticking
The US policy landscape for renewables remains extremely dynamic. As the industry rounds the corner into the second half of 2026, a particularly salient milestone has come to pass: the July 4 cutoff date for tax credit qualification, imposed last year by the OBBBA.
Developers have been working with immense focus to achieve key development milestones and safe-harbor their pipeline of viable assets. But as of Q3, barring few exceptions, the US pipeline of tax-credit-eligible projects will effectively freeze. This means that projects capable of providing the prices tax credits have long made possible will dwindle over time. Barring a substantial policy turnaround in the coming years, PPA prices are set to enter uncharted territory that will almost certainly bring substantial premiums.
While initial qualifications have been met for these projects, they also must be placed in service by the end of 2030 to ultimately receive tax credits. Developers need buyers to transact soon to secure financing and make achieving this final critical milestone possible.
PPAs Are Hedging Volatile Markets
The PPA sector remains a tale of two markets. As tech companies continue to sign large deals with speed, many C&I corporates are sidelined. Their reluctance to procure often stems from uncertainty around GHGP updates, the market's imposing price levels, or some combination therein.
Undoubtedly, buyers will welcome any moderation in PPA prices, making Q2's solar trends a sight for sore eyes. But tariffs, rising insurance premiums, high labor costs, tough permitting journeys, and looming tax credit scarcity make deep pricing relief unlikely.
Buyers who move now and come to the negotiation table with intention can sign deals that can shore up their future energy costs. Recent LevelTen analysis illustrates clearly how PPAs balance corporate electricity expenditure by hedging against ongoing market volatility, geopolitical shocks, and extreme weather impacts (learn more on in the complete Index). Corporates have more levers to pull than they often realize when it comes to optimizing retail electricity rates in relation to their PPA portfolio, as this quarter's guest contributor Arcadia explains in the complete Index.
Interested in learning more? Download the full Executive Summary here.
Subscribers of the PPA Price Index can log in to the new LevelTen Report Center to read the full report. Not a subscriber? Contact us today to get access.
