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Webinar: A New Framework to Quantify PPA Risk and Value

Market Insights
December 3, 2019


  • Date:Thursday, December 05, 2019
  • Time:02:00 PM Eastern Standard Time
  • Duration:1 hour

In this new world awash in low-priced renewables and ever-expanding corporate clean energy targets, it's increasingly important that power buyers understand how to evaluate offsite power purchase agreement (PPA) contract economics.

To date, PPA value assessment methodologies have largely fallen into two categories. One approach, where a buyer places faith in a vendor's forward power curve, is overly simplistic; these curves have historically overstated value, leading buyers to ignore underlying market drivers and to under-appreciate the range of potential PPA outcomes. Conversely, the second approach is overly complex. Here, a vendor builds a large "black box" production cost model, long on precision but likely short on accuracy and insights.

Both models lead buyers to select PPAs without fully appreciating which factors drive value, where the risk truly resides, and how to compare risk and value to identify the best available transaction. Fortunately, assessing value and risk isn't rocket science. In this webinar, hear experts from LevelTen Energy and Energy GPS set the record straight about how to quantify market risk embedded in every PPA. You'll learn about a comprehensive, state-of-the-art valuation framework that accounts for the interplay between three simple, but important, wholesale market concepts:

  • Natural gas price
  • Heat rate
  • Renewable shape risk

Registration is now closed for this event. If you would like to receive a recorded version of the webinar, please contact us.


Bryce Smith

Founder and CEO

LevelTen Energy

Bryce is the founder and CEO of LevelTen Energy, a global renewable energy marketplace and procurement platform. LevelTen reduces the cost, complexity and risk of renewable energy PPAs by connecting buyers and sellers through analytics, aggregation and process best practices. An industry professional with nearly 20 years' experience in renewable energy, Bryce has demonstrated success designing and leading new venutres. In 2009, Vryce co-founded OneEnergy Renewables, a leading developer of utility-scale solar projects

Prior to OneEnergy, Bryce led the Bonneville Environmental Foundation's nationwide investment in clean power projects. Bryce serves on the Advisory Board of REBA (The Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance), a membership association for buyers of renewable energy across the US.

Timothy Belden


Energy GPS LLC

Tim co-founded EnergyGPS LLC in 2009. Energy GPS provides analytics for wholesale electricity and natural gas traders on a subscription basis and provides consulting services to a broad range of customers in the renewable power space. Tim's expertise lies where intermittent resources intersect with wholesale electricity markets, bringing insights to customers to help them better understand value and risk. Prior to starting Energy GPS, Tim held a variety of positions in the energy industry dating back to 1992.

At Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory he authored papers analyzing state and federal electricity policies. He held energy trading positions at Williams, Portland General Electric, Enron, and UBS. Originally from Upstate New York, Tim and his family live in Portland, Oregon. Tim earned a BA from Hamilton College and a Masters in Public Policy from the University of California at Berkeley.

Moderator: Debra Chanil

Research & Content Director

Smart Energy Decisions

Debra has more than 25 years of experience in market research and content development. In her current role, she manages all SED content development and leads SED's exclusive energy industry research including The State of Corporate Renewable Energy Sourcing and the upcoming State of Distributed Energy Resources.

Prior to joining Smart Energy Decisions in 2017, Debra was research director of retail & CPG insights for EnsembleIQ and Stagnito Business Information, where she conducted editorial, sales, and marketing research for a variety of B2B media brands covering the retail sector as well as for custom research projects. Debra also worked as research director for Nielsen Business Media and VNU/Bill Communications.

LevelTen Energy

LevelTen Energy is the leading provider of renewable transaction infrastructure, delivering the marketplaces, software, automated analytics, and expertise required to accelerate clean energy transactions. The LevelTen Platform is the world’s largest online hub for renewable energy buyers, sellers, advisors, asset owners and financiers. The Platform includes the LevelTen Energy Marketplace, which delivers access to more than 4,500 power purchase agreement price offers spanning 28 countries in North America and Europe. It also includes the LevelTen Asset Marketplace, which brings together over 800 renewable energy project developers and owners, and delivers the online tools and expertise they need to buy, sell and finance assets quickly. Together, LevelTen and its partners share #OneGoal to accelerate the energy transition.

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